| RotoFreak.com: Toronto Raptors Fantasy Preview Authored by Craig Huffman - October 16, 2006 - 8:44 am
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Morris Peterson – Despite beginning the year off the bench, MoPete was one the bigger value picks last year. It only took him 5 games to supplant Joey Graham for that starting spot, he was a top-60 player before the All-Star break, and he gave us top-30 stuff after the All-Star break. This year, the additional depth at the swing spots will hurt Mo's minutes; however, he'll still be starting and seeing 35 mpg. That reduction in minutes should bring him back to his pre-All-Star numbers; so, we'll rank him around the 60th pick.
TJ Ford – Colangelo bringing TJ to Toronto has everybody wondering whether Ford's game will go to a new level (like Nash's did in Phoenix). Certainly, Ford will be let loose in Toronto. Colangelo gave up Charlie V and his rookie contract for TJ's expiring deal, and management is modeling their offense after the Suns. So, TJ's assists will surely rise - we're guessing to the 8 or 9 per game level - and the steals will be strong; however, Ford isn't capable of putting up the percentages that Nash does and he doesn't have Nash's 3pt shot either. So, the below-average FG%, 3ptm and turnover totals will limit his upside. We're still bumping TJ up around the 85th pick, though. That's a significant jump from last year's end-of-the-year ranking of 125. He won't be overlooked come draft time; so, we can't imagine him dropping much further than that.
Anthony Parker – He's a two-time Euroleague MVP and has shown above-average handles, and an ability to hit the outside shot and produce solid percentages. Unfortunately, none of that is guaranteed to translate to the NBA, and the recent Euro free agent signings of Jasikevicius and Macijauskas haven't exactly excelled. Unlike those two, Parker isn't just a jumpshooter, and he likely won't be coming off the bench either. So, although he's not on many radars, he can't be entirely dismissed. Until we see how he fares in games, we won't spend a mid-round pick on him; however, his upside makes him a good flyer pick at the end of a 12-teamer. So, we're ranking him around the 140th pick and will keep an eye on his preseason play.
Andrea Bargnani – Sure, his defensive game needs work, he's a relative unknown commodity coming from Europe, and he'll be coming off the bench for Toronto. But, his jump shot is money, he has NBA 3pt range, he can steal and block shots, and - as the 1st overall pick - he'll command playing time right out of the gates. So, although he needs some time to be able to effectively defend the paint, he'll still have some value in the meantime. Not a lot of it, obviously; however, 20 mpg to start the year is certainly possible, and that could grow once he gets the hang on things and/or the Raptors find themselves out of the playoff race. Like Parker, we think he's a good flyer pick at the end of a 12-team draft. In deeper leagues, you might want to eliminate some risk and let him drop a few more rounds. Nevertheless, he's somebody to keep an eye on late in the season, a time when rookies usually step up their fantasy games.
Fred Jones – It's unlikely that Fred finds himself starting this year, mostly because he's undersized at the 2. His speed and athleticism make him a great pairing with TJ; however, when a 5'11" Ford is getting abused on the defensive end, putting a 6'2" SG beside him will only make things worse. So, we see Fred coming off the bench at the 2 this year, and since both MoPete and Parker can play the 3, his mpg should be able to hang around 25 per game. We're ranking Fred around the 165th pick, which is a little above last year's value. If Fred sticks to the bench (as projected), we'll monitor Joey Graham's minutes to see whether or not Fred needs to be dropped down further.
Rasho Nesterovic – There's not much value here outside of blocks and rebounds; however, if Rasho can get 25 mpg, he'll be worth a 130th pick. That might be a lot to ask for considering Toronto is looking to pick up the pace even more this year, and they have Bargnani and Garbajosa looking for minutes off the bench. So, we're playing it safe with Rasho, looking for him around the 150th pick.
Joey Graham – Barring injuries or Parker falling flat on his face, the opportunity just doesn't seem to be there this year for Joey. He wasn't a factor last year when he got minutes and he didn't stand out this summer in Vegas; so, we'll leave him be.
Jorge Garbajosa – Another Euro signing from Colangelo... Jorge was a 3pt gunner in Spain, while also bringing toughness on the defensive end. He's got a load of experience, he's been a clutch performer for Spain on the international stage, and he has 9-cat potential; so, we'll give him a look-see around 175.
Jose Calderon – Calderon and TJ can't play the 2; so, Jose's fantasy value revolves entirely around TJ's health. We'll look for Calderon off the wire if TJ goes down.
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