| Raptorland’s New Carnivore Authored by Matthew Gordon - June 30, 2008 - 6:14 pm
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Ford and O’Neal are quite obviously the principal components of the deal, with Nesterovic being there for cap purposes (although his absence in Toronto means more than his presence in Indiana). The picks, coming in such a helter-skelter draft, could be of varying importance; Baston is of virtually no consequence at all.
Roy Hibbert wasn’t much of a surprise at seventeen, regardless of whether he would’ve been a Pacer or a Raptor. A proven college senior with some of the best height in the draft (a whopping 7’2”), there’s no reason he can’t have a solid NBA career ahead of him, although few are pegging him as a star. Nathan Jawai, a lesser-known, prospect, was a player the Raptors reportedly liked, and is one of the heaviest players in the draft (at least 280 pounds). Both teams wanted big men they could develop with their current young cores, and received them.
In terms of young cores, I like the direction in which Indiana is going. Ford and #13 pick Brandon Rush should combine to form an extremely pesky backcourt, with Jarrett Jack capable of spelling either one and playing good defense. Up front, Danny Granger looks like the franchise so far, and Hibbert’s got good shot-blocking skills in the middle. All of the Pacers’ young players are team guys who have good heads, and who are willing to expend energy on both ends of the court. Trading #11 pick Jerryd Bayless for Rush (along with Ike Diogu for Josh McRoberts and the aforementioned Jack) was an interesting call, arguably giving up a little talent, but Rush is exactly the kind of player who will fit in with what general manager Larry Bird wants to do. Athleticism and defense seem to be paramount in Indiana these days, especially if Shawne Williams gets himself out of the doghouse.
Indiana’s main problem is Troy Murphy’s contract. Murphy is a very good rebounder at 6’11” and can spread the floor, but had poor lateral quickness even before his slew of injuries and can’t block shots. The Pacers will need to acquire a low-post scorer who can do the things Murphy can’t at power forward – this will be challenging, but the rest of the team is in order. The Pacers have Murphy, Mike Dunleavy Jr. and perpetually disgruntled point guard Jamaal Tinsley to dangle as trade bait, a group with which Bird will have to be creative.
If I like what Indiana is doing, a love what Toronto just did. Adding the unquestionably best player in the deal, the Raptors are bringing in a player who will have an immediate impact (unlike Hibbert, or whomever the Raptors would’ve drafted at seventeen), plays a position of need (unlike Ford) and carries a reputation of intimidation (unlike Nesterovic). At 6’11” and 260 pounds, O’Neal has the kind of size the Raptors need down low, along with a refined offensive game and top-notch defensive skills. He’s had injury problems recently, looking lackluster in 42 games last season, yet still managed to put up 2.0 offensive rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots per game in only 28.7 minutes.
O’Neal professes to be healthy, which is really the crux of this trade. The O’Neal of 2000-2007 (20.0PPG, 9.8RPG, 2.4BPG) would be a boon. The O’Neal of last season (13.6PPG, 6.7RPG, 40 missed games) might not be so great. What’s absolutely certain, though, is that O’Neal’s offensive rebounding (at least 2.0 per game every season since 2000, except for 1.9 per game in 2004/2005) and shot-blocking (at least 2.0 per game every season since 2000) are showing no sign of slipping. The Raptors have not had a player average 2+ blocks per game since Keon Clark in 2000/2001, the only season in which the Raptors have ever advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs. (Antonio Davis averaged 1.9 blocks per game that year as well, which no Raptor has met since.) O’Neal’s presence on the offensive glass and swatting shots will be enormous even if he isn’t going to be an exceptional scorer.
Even when healthy, O’Neal is criticized as a low-percentage scorer (.436 and .439FG% in his last two seasons) and as a player who turns over the ball (at least 2.0 turnovers every season since 2000, with the number being higher the past four seasons). Toronto is a place where these worried can be alleviated, though. In Indiana, he often had to take on an inordinate amount of the offensive load for various reasons: Tinsley’s injuries and the team’s utter lack of any other offensive power player were the main culprits. As a result, O’Neal has become uncertain as a primary option.
The Raptors’ two best current players are panaceas for O’Neal’s woes. Jose Calderon, who is expected to be re-signed and to have the ball a lot more than anyone in Indiana has since Mark Jackson, compiled an amazing 8.3 assists to only 1.5 turnovers per game last season. When Calderon has the ball, O’Neal can’t be turning it over, and Calderon is one of the best in the game at finding the open man. With both Bosh and O’Neal able to shoot mid-range jumpers, they can screen for each other in order to gain some easy looks. Calderon’s tendency to dominate the ball and his ability to run an efficient offence should help O’Neal’s turnover situation and field goal percentage problems immensely.
Bosh is even more of a help. In Indiana, teams could cheat off of Jeff Foster, who’s a great defender and rebounder but has no offensive game outside of ten feet. O’Neal could be isolated it the post, where the attention of the opponent’s best defender and double-teams could force him into bad passes and shots. Now, teams will be forced to split their attention between Bosh and O’Neal, which will make both of them better. If a team brings a perimeter player down to double-team O’Neal, it’s no longer looking like that player will be able to strip the ball. Instead, it’s a quick dump to Bosh in the lane, or a kick-out to sharpshooter Jason Kapono.
Having O’Neal in the middle will also help the Raptors’ perimeter defenders, who looked far worse than they are last season. If Calderon directs his man into the lane, O’Neal will be there to force the opposing guard into taking a pull-up jumper. Projected starting small forward Jamario Moon will be able to take more license using his athleticism to create plays, as a failed steal or block attempt can be erased by O’Neal. With O’Neal, Bosh and Moon sealing the interior, the perimeter can become more chaotic, allowing the Raptors to force more turnovers without having to worry about getting burned for lay-ups.
The Raptors ended their season in ignominy, dropping four out of five games to the Orlando Magic while being annihilated by Magic centre Dwight Howard (22.6PPG, 16.2RPG, including three 20-point, 20-rebound outings). The Raptors’ soft interior defense took the blame for that, and rightfully so. While no player in the NBA can realistically be expected to stop Howard, O’Neal has had success forcing turnovers against him. In 2006/2007, O’Neal’s last healthy season, Howard’s otherwise great stats against the Pacers were nearly marred by a 6.5 turnover per game average in four contests. If O’Neal can disrupt opposing big men, players like Moon and Anthony Parker (or whoever replaces him) will feed off of those loose balls. The Raptors committed the second-fewest turnovers last season (the Pistons being first), but were below the league average in forcing them out of the opponent. Having O’Neal around should make it significantly easier to force turnovers, whether he’s doing it or someone else is, so the Raptors can create a wide turnover differential that could win them many more than 41 games.
That’s exactly the goal here for the Raptors, who are trading away two young players (Ford and the pick that became Hibbert) and taking on about $11 million in 2009/2010 salary. This is a win-now move and it should pay off, especially if Raptors general manager Bryan Colangelo can procure a trade for a shooting guard. A starting lineup of Calderon, either Anthony Parker or his replacement, Moon, Bosh and O’Neal should be able to contend with any team in the league on both ends of the floor. Add in a bench of role players like Kapono, Kris Humphries and whoever the mid-level exception lands (likely a backup for Calderon), and this could be the best Raptors team ever.
O’Neal is only on the books for two more years, meaning that if his 2008/2009 season is injury-riddled, the Raptors can take solace on him having an expiring contract the year after. While the value of a $23 million expiring contract is vastly overstated, as matching salaries with it would be extremely difficult, and any player(s) coming back would probably also be making a fortune, a blockbuster trade is always possible. So is a financial windfall when O’Neal comes off the cap two summers from now.
Of course, one of the most likely possibilities is that a rejuvenated O’Neal helps carry the Raptors into a higher echelon of Eastern playoff teams. That’s the one I’m predicting, and the one that everyone in Toronto is dying to see. |
